Collectibles tops TikTok Shop's opportunity map, with 55% of top-seller revenue from products launched in the last 90 days

1. Introduction

A brand choosing where to launch or expand on TikTok Shop faces a trade-off that headline revenue figures hide. The biggest categories offer the most demand, but demand that is already held by a few established products, or that is shrinking, may leave little room for a newcomer. We ask a narrower question than "which category is biggest": in which categories does the current evidence suggest a new brand can still break in?

We combine four signals that matter to a founder: whether the category is growing, how much revenue an average shop takes, how concentrated revenue is among the top products, and how much revenue goes to products launched recently. Concentration is a long-standing measure of how contestable a market is; the Herfindahl–Hirschman index is the standard example [1], and our openness measure follows the same logic using a simpler top-ten share. Work on online retail shows that digital marketplaces can sell a long tail of niche products well beyond the bestsellers [2], which is one reason to expect openness to vary by category.

The result is an opportunity map: a relative ranking intended to help brand owners, operators and the creators who work with them prioritise where to look first, not a prediction of what any one product will earn.

2. Data

The analysis rests on 2,800 top-selling TikTok Shop products, with product data as of 2 October 2026, and on weekly estimated category revenue over the past year, with category measures as of 29 September 2026. The sample covers 29 categories; 28 have momentum figures and 26 have all four opportunity measures and are ranked. This version uses no video data.

For each category we recorded estimated revenue in the latest 4 and 13 weeks and in the equivalent preceding periods, the category's share of revenue across all tracked categories, the number of shops and the average revenue per shop in the latest week, the share of revenue among tracked top sellers held by the top ten products, and the share of top-seller revenue from products launched within the last 90 days.

The window is short. The product snapshot is a single point in time and the momentum comparisons cover a period that runs from late summer into early autumn, so seasonal effects are likely present in the growth figures.

Weekly category figures for the US (estimated revenue, its split between video, LIVE and the shop tab, affiliate revenue, shops and active products, and a year of weekly revenue) and daily rankings of each category’s top-selling products (unit price, commission rate, launch date and revenue by channel) were collected from several independent sources. Medians of price and commission are weighted by revenue; momentum compares the latest weeks with the same number of weeks before. This paper covers 2026-09-03 to 2026-10-02: 2,800 top-selling products across 29 categories.

3. Methods

Momentum compares a category's estimated revenue in the latest 4 weeks and the latest 13 weeks with the same number of weeks immediately before, using its weekly revenue over the past year. Revenue shares are each category's share of revenue across all tracked categories in the last 4 weeks. We did not seasonally adjust these series; a seasonal-trend decomposition [3] would need more history than a single comparison of adjacent periods uses.

The opportunity score is computed for each category with at least three of four measures (all 26 ranked categories had four). The measures are: revenue in the latest 13 weeks against the 13 before; average revenue per shop in the latest week; openness, defined as 100 minus the top ten products' share of revenue among the tracked top sellers, a simple concentration ratio in the spirit of the Herfindahl–Hirschman index [1]; and the share of top-seller revenue from products launched in the last 90 days. Each category's percentile rank on each measure is averaged to give a score from 0 to 100.

Because the score is built from ranks, it describes where a category sits relative to the other 25, not how attractive it is in absolute terms, and small differences in score (for example 52 against 51) are not meaningful. No confidence intervals are attached to these figures.

4. Results: the opportunity ranking

Collectibles leads the ranking at 83, well ahead of Womenswear & Underwear (71), Shoes (67), Jewelry Accessories & Derivatives (67) and Phones & Electronics (63). At the bottom are Home Improvement (26), Furniture (27), Pet Supplies (31) and Tools & Hardware (31).

Collectibles' lead comes from being strong on more measures at once. Its revenue rose 7.9% over the latest 13 weeks and 4.6% over the latest four, 55.3% of its top-seller revenue came from products launched in the last 90 days, and its top ten products took 30.3% of top-seller revenue. Its average revenue per shop ($2,929 across 3,423 shops) is mid-range.

The largest categories do not top the map. Beauty & Personal Care, which took 19.1% of revenue in the last four weeks ($290.7m across 15,614 shops), scores 53, held back by a 12.2% fall over 13 weeks and a 13.1% newcomer share. Womenswear & Underwear, with 12.0% of revenue, ranks second on the strength of high revenue per shop ($5,169) and high openness (top ten at 23.1%), despite a 6.9% 13-week decline and an 11.0% newcomer share.

5. Results: what sits behind the scores

The four measures often point in different directions. Revenue per shop is highest in Furniture ($9,495), Health ($6,166), Womenswear & Underwear ($5,169), Beauty & Personal Care ($5,068) and Shoes ($4,985). But Furniture and Health have among the lowest newcomer shares (4.0% and 3.8%), and Furniture is one of the most concentrated categories, with its top ten products taking 39.3% of top-seller revenue.

Openness is highest in Fashion Accessories, where the top ten products take 19.0% of top-seller revenue, followed by Womenswear & Underwear (23.1%) and Menswear & Underwear (24.3%). Concentration is highest in Textiles & Soft Furnishings (40.5%), Furniture (39.3%) and Household Appliances (38.7%).

New products take the largest share of top-seller revenue in Collectibles (55.3%), Toys & Hobbies (36.8%), Phones & Electronics (31.5%) and Household Appliances (29.6%). Toys & Hobbies shows why one measure is not enough: it combines a high newcomer share with a 25.4% four-week fall, low revenue per shop ($1,148) and relatively high concentration (35.6%), and scores 44. Jewelry Accessories & Derivatives scores 67 but is a small base, with 1,321 shops and 0.7% of revenue, so its measures rest on less activity than most.

6. Results: momentum

Over the latest 13 weeks, revenue fell against the 13 before in 22 of the 26 ranked categories. Only Jewelry Accessories & Derivatives (+8.3%), Collectibles (+7.9%), Books, Magazines & Audio (+7.4%) and Automotive & Motorcycle (+4.9%) grew. The steepest declines were in Furniture (−26.3%), Sports & Outdoor (−21.2%), Menswear & Underwear (−19.4%) and Home Improvement (−18.0%).

The four-week picture is different. Several categories that fell over 13 weeks rose sharply in the latest four: Textiles & Soft Furnishings (+37.0%), Computers & Office Equipment (+32.6%), Furniture (+22.4%), Menswear & Underwear (+20.7%) and Kitchenware (+19.6%). Others fell on both horizons, including Household Appliances (−13.1% and −20.3%), Home Improvement (−18.0% and −19.3%) and Toys & Hobbies (−9.7% and −25.4%).

Only three ranked categories grew on both horizons: Collectibles, Books, Magazines & Audio (+7.4% and +12.2%) and Automotive & Motorcycle (+4.9% and +17.5%). Books, Magazines & Audio is small, at 0.8% of revenue.

7. Discussion

For brands, the map suggests that the categories easiest to enter are not necessarily the biggest. Collectibles combines growth with a market in which recent launches take most of the top-seller revenue, which is consistent with a category where new entrants are regularly displacing incumbents. Womenswear & Underwear and Shoes offer high revenue per shop and low concentration, but newer products take a smaller share, so a newcomer there may be competing for an established customer base rather than a churning one. Categories with high per-shop revenue but low newcomer shares, such as Furniture and Health, look lucrative for incumbents and harder for new products to join.

The openness findings fit prior work showing that online retail can support a long tail beyond the bestsellers [2]: in most categories the top ten products held under a third of top-seller revenue. Our measure is a simple top-ten ratio rather than a full concentration index [1], and it is computed only among tracked top sellers, so it likely understates concentration in the wider category.

There are alternative explanations. The broad 13-week declines alongside four-week rebounds in home, office and textile categories are consistent with a seasonal move from summer into back-to-school and early autumn rather than a change in underlying trend [3]. A high newcomer share may reflect seasonal or trend-led product turnover (for example in Collectibles or Toys & Hobbies) rather than durable room for new brands. And because the score is an equal-weight average of ranks, a brand that cares more about one measure, such as revenue per shop, would rank categories differently.

8. What this means for brands and founders

• Shortlist Collectibles for new launches: 55% of its top-seller revenue came from products launched in the last 90 days, and its revenue rose 7.9% over 13 weeks.
• Do not read category size as room to enter: Beauty & Personal Care took 19.1% of revenue in the last four weeks but fell 12.2% over 13 weeks and gave new products only 13% of top-seller revenue.
• Treat high revenue per shop in Furniture ($9,495) and Health ($6,166) with caution; new products took only 4% of top-seller revenue in each, which is associated with incumbents holding the demand.
• If you sell in apparel, Womenswear & Underwear (top ten at 23% of top-seller revenue, $5,169 per shop) and Fashion Accessories (top ten at 19%) are the least concentrated markets on our measure.
• Check the four-week rebounds against seasonality before committing stock: Textiles & Soft Furnishings rose 37% in the last four weeks but was down 7% over 13 weeks.

9. Limitations

Product figures cover the top-selling products we track in each category, not every listing, so they describe what sells best rather than everything on sale. Results are associations, not causes. Paid promotion, creator audience size and product price are not fully controlled for. Revenue, views and sales are estimates, not figures reported by TikTok. No video data were used in this version, so the paper says nothing about content formats, creators or paid promotion. Revenue figures are estimates. Openness and newcomer share are computed only among the 2,800 tracked top-selling products, not across all products in each category. Category measures are as of 29 September 2026 and the product snapshot as of 2 October 2026, a single point in time. Momentum compares adjacent periods without seasonal adjustment, and the window spans the move from summer into autumn. The opportunity score is an equal-weight average of percentile ranks across 26 categories; it has no confidence interval, small score differences are not meaningful, and it is not a forecast. Small categories such as Jewelry Accessories & Derivatives (1,321 shops, 0.7% of revenue) and Books, Magazines & Audio (0.8% of revenue) rest on less activity than most.

10. Conclusion

Across 26 ranked TikTok Shop categories, Collectibles shows the strongest combination of growth, openness and newcomer revenue, scoring 83, while the largest category, Beauty & Personal Care, scores 53. High revenue per shop often coincides with low revenue for new products, as in Furniture and Health.

The ranking is relative, rests on a short window and a single product snapshot, and its growth figures are likely affected by seasonality. It is best used to shortlist categories for closer investigation. Repeating the analysis over further windows will show which positions hold once seasonal swings are accounted for.