Videos over 30 days old still bring in 27.6% of top-video revenue on TikTok Shop

1. Introduction

Brands and creators on TikTok Shop face a practical question: how long does a winning video keep selling? If sales are concentrated in the first days after posting, the plan is a steady supply of new videos. If a meaningful share comes from older videos, existing content is an asset worth keeping and supporting.

Prior work on online content finds that early popularity predicts later popularity and that attention is long-tailed [1]. Online retail also sells a long tail of niche products beyond the bestsellers [2]. Neither speaks directly to how long a video that is already selling on a shopping platform keeps earning. This paper describes that shelf life for top-selling videos, how it relates to revenue per view and paid promotion, and how it differs by category.

2. Data

Our analysis covers TikTok Shop from 3 September to 2 October 2026. We tracked 16,541 videos across 29 categories. The shelf-life statistics rest on 14,200 videos observed over 27,275 video-weeks, where a video-week is one video in one week in which it sold.

For each video-week we recorded revenue, views, whether the revenue came with paid promotion, the category, and the video's age. Only top-selling videos are included, so the results describe videos that are already selling well, not all videos. The category comparison uses the categories reported in the category figure, each with between 628 and 1,477 video-weeks.

Weekly figures for the top-selling TikTok Shop videos in the US were collected from commercial data providers: each video’s estimated revenue, views and engagement in each week it ranked, the share of its revenue and views that came from paid promotion (reported per video and top-coded at 80%), its estimated return on ad spend and its publish date. One row is one video in one week (a video-week). This paper covers 2026-09-03 to 2026-10-02: 16,541 videos tracked, 0 of them watched and analysed.

3. Methods

A video's age is the number of days from its publication to the end of the week it sold in. We grouped video-weeks into five age bands: under a week, 1–2 weeks, 2–4 weeks, 1–3 months and over 3 months.

For each band we computed the share of total revenue, revenue per 1,000 views, median weekly revenue, and the share of revenue that came with paid promotion. We also computed revenue-weighted median ages, for the market and for each category, and the share of revenue from videos over 30 and over 90 days old. A revenue-weighted median is the age at which half of revenue comes from younger videos and half from older ones.

These are descriptive statistics. We report no confidence intervals for them, so differences between bands or categories should be read as patterns in this window, not as precisely estimated gaps.

4. Results: most revenue is early, but a tail persists

Revenue is concentrated in the first weeks. Videos under a week old account for 22.5% of top-video revenue and videos aged 1–2 weeks for 33.5%, together 56%. The median age of a selling video-week is 11 days, and the revenue-weighted median is also 11 days.

The tail is material. Videos aged 2–4 weeks account for 16.4% of revenue, those aged 1–3 months for 14.3% and those over 3 months for 13.3%. In total, 27.6% of revenue comes from videos more than 30 days old and 13.3% from videos more than 90 days old.

5. Results: yield and paid promotion by age

Revenue per 1,000 views rises with age: $14.57 under a week, $14.62 at 1–2 weeks, $15.33 at 2–4 weeks, $17.80 at 1–3 months and $22.99 over 3 months, about 1.6× the youngest band. Median weekly revenue per video peaks at $4,332 for 2–4 weeks and falls to $2,443 over 3 months, so older videos earn more per view but less in absolute terms.

Paid promotion accompanies most revenue at every age: 65.2% under a week, 65.4% at 1–2 weeks, 68.4% at 2–4 weeks, 66.2% at 1–3 months and 61.4% over 3 months. The revenue-weighted median age is 12 days for organic videos and 11 days for paid-led videos, a gap of one day.

6. Results: shelf life differs widely by category

The revenue-weighted median age ranges from 8 days in Menswear & Underwear and Womenswear & Underwear to 28 days in Jewelry Accessories & Derivatives. Other long-lived categories include Furniture (22 days), Baby & Maternity (21), Food & Beverages (20), Health (19) and Automotive & Motorcycle (19).

The share of revenue from videos over 30 days old follows the same pattern: 47.3% in Jewelry Accessories & Derivatives, 46.4% in Food & Beverages, 44.9% in Baby & Maternity, 44.1% in Furniture and 42.2% in Pet Supplies, against 6.4% in Menswear & Underwear and 16.7% in Womenswear & Underwear. Beauty & Personal Care sits near the market figure at 10 days and 24.7%. Each category rests on a limited number of video-weeks, so smaller gaps between neighbouring categories should not be over-read.

7. Discussion

For brands, the results suggest a launch-and-tail pattern: most revenue arrives within a few weeks of posting, but a quarter or more of top-video revenue comes from videos older than a month. This is consistent with the long-tailed attention described in earlier work [1]. The tail is much heavier in categories such as Jewelry Accessories & Derivatives, Food & Beverages, Baby & Maternity and Furniture than in fashion categories.

The rise in revenue per 1,000 views with age should be read carefully. We only observe videos that are still among the top sellers, so older videos in the data are survivors. Lower view counts with a high conversion rate, a different mix of products, or a different audience could all produce a higher yield. Median weekly revenue is also lower for the oldest videos than for videos aged 2–4 weeks, so a higher yield does not mean older videos earn more.

Paid promotion is associated with 61% to 68% of revenue in every band. Because paid reach is chosen by sellers, we cannot tell from this data whether it extends a video's life or is simply directed at videos that already sell; returns to advertising are hard to measure from observational data [3]. The one-day gap between organic and paid-led median ages is too small to support a conclusion.

8. What this means for brands and founders

• Plan for a tail: videos more than 30 days old accounted for 27.6% of top-video revenue, and 13.3% came from videos more than 90 days old, so keep proven videos live and do not treat them as finished after launch.
• Front-load the first two weeks: 56% of top-video revenue came from videos under two weeks old, and the revenue-weighted median age was 11 days, so schedule new content and any support early.
• Plan for paid reach: in every age band at least 61.4% of top-video revenue came with paid promotion.
• Match your refresh rhythm to your category: the revenue-weighted median age was 28 days in Jewelry Accessories & Derivatives and 8 days in Menswear & Underwear, and videos over 30 days old brought 47.3% versus 6.4% of revenue.
• Do not judge older videos on absolute revenue alone: revenue per 1,000 views was $22.99 for videos over 3 months old versus $14.57 under a week, even though median weekly revenue was $2,443 versus $2,652.

9. Limitations

Video figures cover top-selling videos only. Paid shares are reported per video and top-coded at 80%, so they are lower bounds; ad spend and margins are not observed, so a reported return on ad spend says nothing about profit. Results are associations, not causes. Paid promotion, creator audience size and product price are not fully controlled for. Revenue, views and sales are estimates, not figures reported by TikTok. The data covers only top-selling videos, so older videos are survivors and results do not describe all videos. The window is 30 days (3 September to 2 October 2026), so seasonal effects cannot be separated from shelf life, and age bands compare videos at different ages in the same window, not the same videos over time. No videos were analysed in depth by our AI analyst, so the results say nothing about video content. No confidence intervals are reported, and category figures rest on limited video-weeks.

10. Conclusion

Among top-selling TikTok Shop videos in this window, revenue comes mainly from videos under a month old, but 27.6% comes from videos older than 30 days and 13.3% from those older than 90 days. Shelf life varies by category, with revenue-weighted median ages of 8 to 28 days. Paid promotion accompanies most revenue at every age.

These are associations in a single 30-day window of top-selling videos. They describe when videos sell, not why, and should be tested against a brand's own results.